ACUS48 KWNS 050938
SWOD48
SPC AC 050937

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4-5/Friday-Saturday...
Guidance suggests acceleration of the Southwest upper trough should
occur across the southern High Plains to central Great Plains. After
an initially inverted surface trough on D3/Thursday, surface cyclone
development is expected. Overall model trends have been for greater
amplification of the trough and attendant surface reflection. But
spatial spread, that is noticeable on Thursday, increases further
into Friday-Saturday. In addition, very large spread persists with
the potential track of TC Rafael in the Gulf. This may render
peripheral impacts on the surrounding low-level moisture plume ahead
of the Great Plains wave. As such, confidence is low for determining
probable mesoscale-focused severe potential on D4-5 across the
south-central states.

...D8/Tuesday...
After a potential quiet period of severe potential on D6-7, guidance
consensus indicates an amplified upper trough should progress into
the West early next week. This may eventually overlap a broadening
warm/moist sector emanating north from the western Gulf and yield a
return to increasing severe potential towards mid-week. Poor
run-to-run continuity and large ensemble spread exists with the
evolution of this trough for now.

..Grams.. 11/05/2024

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