FOUS11 KWBC 050721
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 05 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024


...Northern/Central Rockies...
Days 1-2...

Vigorous upper trough moving through the NW will start its
transition to separate systems... the northern entity becoming an
upper low that will wobble through eastern Montana later today and
overnight. Broad divergence will favor light snow over much of
Montana but the eastward then southward movement of the forming
upper low will turn the flow northerly over central portions of the
state, which will enhance upslope flow into the Little Belt, Big
Snowy, and Big Horn Mountains. Snow will fall at a modest to heavy
rates per the 00Z HREF which shows >1"/hr probs of 50-90%. Lighter
snow is expected farther south through WY into CO as the southern
portion of the trough begins to split off and sink toward the Four
Corners, with some higher totals in the high terrain. Snowfall
should gradually taper off in most areas by Wednesday morning
(north) or overnight (south). WPC PWPF shows high chances (>70%)
for snowfall totals >8" over many of the MT ranges, especially
>6,000ft, through Wednesday afternoon. Some of the tallest peaks of
these ranges could surpass 24" locally.

...Four Corners...
Day 2-3...

The southern part of the upper level feature responsible for the
heavy snow in the northern Rockies will sink southward through
eastern UT on Wednesday into AZ by early Thursday. After that, it
should slowly turn eastward into NM, but the guidance remains
inconsistent in the evolution/track. A cold front will bring in
colder air to the southern Rockies onto the High Plains as strong
upper level divergence aloft will support broad ascent over the
region. Moisture levels will be modest, but IVT on southwest to
southerly flow is forecast to be near the 90th percentile which
should act in concert with upslope enhancement to promote moderate
to heavy snow over the southern Rockies. Trend has been a bit less
and farther south with the QPF, resulting in a bit less snow for
northern areas in CO and continued uncertainty in snow amounts over
NM. Nevertheless, significant snow is still expected in at least
portions of southern CO into northern NM with this dynamic system.

The upslope component should favor both the SW/S-facing slopes of
the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos as well as farther north into
the Front Range via the cold front. The key on Thursday will be
where the upper low sets up and the extent of the moisture/upslope
flow into the Southern Rockies. By Friday morning, the upper low is
forecast to drift into NM with the brunt of the snowfall over NM.

WPC PWPF for the event through 12Z Fri shows high chances (>70%)
for snowfall >8" in the San Juans, the Sangre De Cristo, and into
parts of the far western High Plains. Highest totals are likely
over the Sangre De Cristo where 2ft+ is possible (>50% chance).
Around the Denver metro area, WPC PWPF for >4" of snow are around
30% but increase to the south (i.e., Palmer Divide) and then
increase again near/south of Colorado Springs and Pueblo to reach
>70%.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.


Fracasso


$$

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