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Katrina was a blip.  A blip?  That's the Fed's response, at least as it
applies to the economy as a whole.  So they continued their "measured
pace" of rate increases.  The Street was seriously spooked!  From being
up 5pts in the morning, prices lost it all and fell to down 10pts about
as fast as we've ever seen.

As you can see below Momentum crossed the line from positive to
negative, my timing signal for a Sell signal.  The price change was
about 80% of the way to significance, and volume jumped to +21% above
average.  That also made it a "Distribution" day when holders were
getting rid of their stock.  (Remember those mutual fund managers I've
been claiming were poised for FY-End portfolio cleanups?)  The
Oscillator is in very negative territory, meaning the majority of NYSE
stocks have been falling.  That's going to bring down the indices.

Well, I've told you before the Street was going to have to come to terms
with the Fed returning to traditional rate levels.  They've been on an
"easy money" binge like the best sailor.

We started the year at 1202.  We're now at 1221, having lost 10pts just
today.  How's that for progress?

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 ___     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___|     09/14
 ___     _<__     ___|     09/15
 __     _<__     __|_     09/16
 _|__     _|__     __|_     __>_     _|__     __|_     09/19
 _|__     _|__     _|__     ___>     <___     __|_     09/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/06/05 S&P:    1233
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Archeologist: one whose career lies in ruins.
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