AWUS01 KWNH 050356
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1127
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...northeastern TX/southeastern OK into western AR
and central/southern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050354Z - 050915Z

SUMMARY...A slow moving axis of heavy rain will result in
continued flash flooding from northeastern TX/southeastern OK into
western AR and central/southern MO through 09Z. Rainfall rates of
1-2 in/hr should result in an additional 2-4 inches of rain
(locally higher), atop saturated soils.

DISCUSSION....03Z radar imagery and surface observations placed a
SW to NE axis of thunderstorms from northeastern TX into
northwestern AR and southern/eastern MO, out ahead of a cold front
located west of the convective line. The convective line was
nearly coincident with the front over northeastern TX, but was
located increasingly east of the cold front into AR/MO as one
moves north, located along an outflow boundary. The orientation of
the convective axis matching the mean southwesterly steering flow
has allowed for training with MRMS-derived rainfall rates of 1 to
locally over 2 in/hr since 00Z. 03Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed
MLCAPE was only about 500 J/kg along and immediately ahead of the
convective line/outflow boundary but anomalous precipitable water
values of 1.7 to 1.9 inches and divergence aloft within the
right-entrance region of a 110-130 kt jet max over the
middle/upper MS River Valley was leading to enhanced lift and
efficient rainfall production.

Infrared satellite imagery showed a gradual warming of cloud tops
over the region since 00Z, but occasional bursts of colder cloud
tops continued to occur. Following trends in radar imagery over
the past few hours and understanding that height falls downstream
of a slow moving upper trough axis over the TX Panhandle will only
gradually push off to the east through 09Z, the axis of heavy rain
is only expected to slowly shift eastward. There could be
relatively faster movement with the rainfall axis located in MO
compared to locations farther south, but regeneration and training
of thunderstorms to the southwest could allow for a prolonged
duration of heavy rain for some locations as cells move back to
the north. Some gradual weakening of CAPE is anticipated through
the night but strong forcing for ascent should maintain periods of
high rainfall rates with 1 to 2 in/hr (locally higher) gradually
translating toward the east through 09Z. Given heavy rain which
has impacted northwestern AR over the past 48 hours, and the
sensitive terrain of the Ozarks, additional flash flooding will be
likely, with locally significant impacts possible through 09Z.
Additional totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher) can be
expected, with northern AR into southern MO possibly seeing the
greatest additional rainfall over the next few hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9JlLNBDATprWAX3QV5Kjx_voQ0HDTuZk7kisiL1bP31h81pfjBnBFO9rUhxzWVZ7DcIQ=
vx-V4-OoXeJgJaigPaqrzQw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39069025 38559023 36609106 34879217 33149390=20
            32219511 32499587 33739551 35329445 36869299=20
            38639153=20

=3D =3D =3D
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