ACUS11 KWNS 050138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050138=20
TXZ000-050415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...parts of southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 050138Z - 050415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may effectively translate east/southeast along the
cold front, with localized hail toward the I-35 corridor this
evening.

DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push southeastward across
central and southern TX, with renewed storms west of I-35 recently.
The air mass is moist and unstable with little cap. Deep-layer wind
fields are generally parallel to the front, with weak flow in the
850 to 700 mb layer.  This may limit rightward propagation potential
off the front. However, boundary-layer southeast winds will aid
inflow and convergence along the front. As the front continues
southeastward, new updrafts may develop, with brief hail potential.
In general, most cells should not be severe for very long, and as
such, a watch is not anticipated.

..Jewell.. 11/05/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-1KhAYYESaqH2r74jYPkUkI-1s9DJ_sGa25gKcE-DUp8L7WW17z7HVatzjkb4WUDvgLUIGS62=
RgKWYQ6Ydl8dHlpdSQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28409940 29119936 29979870 30599799 30729724 30369683
            29779704 28939778 28439829 28209904 28409940=20


=3D =3D =3D
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