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"Shocking Fact: 50% of Americans are Below Average."  And some of them
work in the media.  Here are a couple notable examples from reporting on
today's update of Q1 GDP, from 3.5% to 3.8%.

Headline: "Economy's Growth Is Better Than Expected."  Noooo, it WAS
better than expected.  That was then, this is now.  That is driving
through the rear-view mirror.  If you fall in that trap the market is
going to serve your head up on a platter!

"Report confirmed that rising oil prices did little to hinder growth."
It did no such thing!  What would have happened if crude prices had
stayed in the $40-$50/bbl range?  We need to consider the fact that we
never have a "controlled experiment" when we evaluate investing
strategies.  Apparently some journalism and economics majors flunked
their science classes.

Well, in any event oil has closed down a couple bucks over the last
couple days.  But the FOMC announcement comes out tomorrow.  Typically
the market "marches in place" until we know what their decision is.
Then it typically swings pretty noticably until everybody agrees on what
it really means.  Prices didn't do much, closing off a couple points,
and volume was just below yesterday's.  "Marching in place."

What we want to be looking for tomorrow isn't what the Fed does or says,
but how the Street reacts and what that reveals about attitudes.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 ____     __|_     __|_     _     06/23
 _     _     06/24
 _     06/27
 __<_     _|__     __|_     _|__     _|__     ___|     06/28
 _|__     _|__     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___|     06/29

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  06/28/05 S&P:    1202
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

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