AWUS01 KWNH 042221
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-050420-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1126
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
520 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...Central and Eastern MO...West-Central and
Southwest IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042220Z - 050420Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms
going well into the evening hours will maintain strong concerns
for instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION....GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction with
dual-pol radar shows broken areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms arriving across west-central to southwest MO with
separate areas of convection noted farther east across portions of
central and eastern MO. The activity continues to be strongly
influenced by strong warm air advection/isentropic ascent and
moisture transport across the region. This continues to be
facilitated by persistent and strong deep layer southerly flow out
ahead of a deep layer trough/closed low edging out into the
southern High Plains from the southern Rockies.

A southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts remains in place and is
nosing up across much of western AR and southern MO, and this is
overrunning a warm front seen lifting north currently through
northwest AR and southern MO. PWs across the region are locally as
high as 1.75 inches which again are on the order of 2 to 3+
standard deviations above normal for this time of the year. This
will continue to favor an environment conducive for enhanced
rainfall rates going through the evening hours and especially with
the low-level jet yielding a gradual and steady increase in
instability.

MLCAPE values have risen to 500 to 1000 J/kg across all of
southern MO, with values locally approaching 1500 J/kg across
southwest MO. This coupled with strong forcing and shear
parameters going through the evening hours will strongly support
additional bands or clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Areas of central and eastern MO north of the warm front will have
concerns heading through this evening for repeating rounds of
convection and cell-training that will yielding enhanced rainfall
totals. Some of this may also impact areas of west-central to
southwest IL.

These additional rains will be on top of the earlier rainfall and
will be falling on already very sensitive soil conditions. The
latest HRRR guidance and HREF footprint suggests additional
rainfall amounts through late this evening of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated heavier amounts not out of the question. Given the
environment, these rains are expected to result in additional
instances of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8XP-KcNTm18TTlniNf-nojK7YjFoVdX-mOMZdeZe4gtlEdupk7aUq7NtbsJxcMKEG219=
bY51OK6YzlSrLwojO64KCMM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39809122 39759030 39488971 39088952 38648982=20
            38189049 37799129 37159206 37529232 37949298=20
            37939403 38569395 39029351 39409287 39599236=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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