AWUS01 KWNH 042156
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...Eastern OK...West-Central to Northwest
AR...Southwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042155Z - 050355Z

SUMMARY...Well organized bands of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the evening hours. Heavy rainfall rates and wet
antecedent conditions are expected to result in scattered to
numerous areas of flash flooding this evening. Some locally
significant and life-threatening impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A strong deep layer trough and associated closed low
continues to advance very slowly across the southern Rockies and
toward the southern High Plains. A strong cold front associated
with this continues to gradually advance eastward with a notably
unstable and highly sheared environment focused out ahead of it.
Strong and well organized bands of convection are seen in GOES-E
IR satellite imagery and dual-pol radar focusing across eastern OK
with separate clusters of convection noted across portions of
western AR and southwest MO.

MLCAPE values ahead of the cold front over eastern OK and western
AR are as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and this instability axis has
been gradually nosing up into areas of southwest MO over the last
couple of hours. A southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts remains
in place across the region, and this will drive strong moisture
and instability transport through the evening hours as the cold
front off to the west approaches the region.

Strong and well organized bands of convection including some
occasional supercell structures are expected to result in heavy
rainfall totals this evening over areas of especially east-central
OK, northwest AR and southwest MO. This is where there will be
concerns for some cell-training and rainfall rates capable of
reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. PWs are already running locally
near 1.75 inches and with the enhanced instability/shear profiles
and moisture transport across the region, the rates should be
efficiently high.

Additional rainfall amounts by late this evening of 2 to 4 inches
are expected, with isolated heavier amounts of 5+ inches possible
where areas of cell-training are maximized. The experimental WoFS
and latest HREF guidance generally supports these amounts on the
mesoscale level. Given the additional rainfall, and the wet
antecedent conditions, scattered to numerous areas of flash
flooding are likely. Locally significant and life-threatening
impacts will be possible this evening which will include some of
the more urbanized locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5RRnrqCtmH0jJ4PgRf_q-XgyLodShvGl6aZ6DOvFjKTQ3fTMI8NB4UVokbbGdD88Zpzr=
NR3o-GtEtqJFuY-TY8SZG7s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37939289 37459231 36839228 35819269 34899326=20
            34019406 33649469 33709514 33979596 34249607=20
            35289564 36289523 37209471 37819406=20

=3D =3D =3D
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