AWUS01 KWNH 042146
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-050345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...Central to Northeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042145Z - 050345Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates
may produce some isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding, and especially within the more urbanized corridors
heading through the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough and associated closed low
continues to eject gradually across the southern Rockies which is
driving a cold front well to the east across the southern Plains.
This front has been crossing through central and northern TX this
afternoon and is bumping up against a very moist and unstable
environment that is characterized by MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500
J/kg and PWs of 1.5 to 1.75 inches.

A major driver of the moisture and instability transport continues
to be a well-defined low-level jet that is locally reaching 40 to
50 kts, and the latest GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery shows a
substantial amount of cloud street activity ahead of the
approaching cold front.

Increasingly divergent flow aloft associated with the ejecting
height falls/DPVA will favor convection along and just ahead of
the cold front becoming more organized and widespread heading
through the evening hours, and especially with the strongly
favorable thermodynamic environment. A substantial level of
effective bulk shear is in place that will be conducive for a
combination of multicell and supercell activity that aside from
severe weather hazards will be conducive for producing high
rainfall rates.

The convective mode along and ahead of the front will likely
attain a QLCS mode in time, and with a southward extension that
will eventually include areas of south-central TX including
eastern portions of the Hill Country by later this evening.
Rainfall rates may reach as high as 2 inches/hour with the
stronger convective cores heading through the evening hours.

Generally the antecedent conditions across central to northeast TX
are on the dry side, but the convective evolution over the next
several hours will be conducive for some 2 to 4 inch rainfall
amounts which may end up being locally higher if any cell-training
or cell-merger activity takes place. Some isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding will be possible and especially within
the more urbanized corridors.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9Gd0Zmw3lA-9sBhCOOjiKxYBkmKijk3RdpC194yF9odQUX4QTtkQgry53i9TbbTl3VT0=
oH7y1s-uQMzHDGJeGR5JCYg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33969545 33599491 32899484 31539550 30419629=20
            29569746 29649834 30429842 31859741 33629645=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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