ACUS48 KWNS 040906
SWOD48
SPC AC 040905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will occur across TX
on D4/Thursday in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over
AZ/NM. A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains to Mid-MO
Valley will support ridging southward across the southern High
Plains, with an inverted trough developing to its east. This
suggests convective development will primarily be elevated near and
west of the inverted trough. To its east, a mesoscale corridor of at
least low-probability severe should emerge across a part of west TX
in later outlooks.

Guidance suggests acceleration of the Southwest upper trough should
occur across the southern High Plains to central Great Plains on
D5-6/Friday-Saturday. This overall synoptic pattern and related
instability/shear combinations appear to be on the lower-end
spectrum for the OK/TX/AR/LA vicinity. But daily bouts of
mesoscale-driven severe risk are plausible. In the wake of this
wave, a lack of dry continental air intruding into the western Gulf
may yield a broader warm-moist sector beyond D8. Both 00Z ensemble
and deterministic guidance depict above-normal consistency with
indications of an amplifying upper trough around the Rockies
vicinity on D9/Tuesday.

Finally, the forecast evolution of PTC 18 into the Gulf later this
week will bear monitoring for a potential TC-tornado threat along
some portion of the coast.

..Grams.. 11/04/2024

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