ACUS03 KWNS 040744
SWODY3
SPC AC 040743

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL
KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower
FL Keys, in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18.

...FL Keys...
NHC is forecasting PTC 18 to become a hurricane over the northern
Caribbean by Wednesday morning. Latest track forecast indicates this
cyclone should cross far western Cuba into the southeast Gulf on
Wednesday. Despite the lack of organized TC formation yet, consensus
of guidance suggests an increase in low-level southeasterlies and PW
to around 2.5 inches should occur across at least the Lower Keys.
Even the more subdued spectrum of guidance would support sufficient
SRH for rotating convection within potential outer bands that move
northwestward across the FL Straits. This may yield waterspouts that
could briefly move ashore. Current track/timing suggest this threat
over the Lower Keys may diminish by Wednesday night.

...Southeast...
General thunder on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be focused
along a quasi-stationary front from the northwest Gulf Coast to KY,
and separately amid rich low-level moisture across GA/FL/AL.
Seasonably modest deep-layer shear along with predominantly weak
buoyancy appear to preclude organized severe-storm potential.

..Grams.. 11/04/2024

$$

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