AWUS01 KWNH 040001
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040559-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1119
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...in and near portions of eastern OK, AR, and
southern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032359Z - 040559Z

Summary...Training showers and thunderstorms over saturating soils
and area terrain are expected to lead to scattered instances of
flash flooding through 06z.  Hourly rain totals to 2.5" with local
totals to 5" are expected over that time frame.

Discussion...An upper trough crossing the southern Rockies is
causing a broad area of divergence aloft across portions of the
southern Plains and Mid-South.  An effective front, part synoptic
scale and part outflow boundary, extends from a low near the Red
River of the South across southern and eastern AR into the
Bootheel of MO.  Along and north of the boundary a broad area of
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall exists, with a
slight break in easternmost OK.  Precipitable water values are
near 2" per GPS data.  MU CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg exists near the
convection.  Effective bulk shear is near 60 kts, more than
sufficient for mesocyclone development.  The mean flow is out of
the south-southwest at ~60 kts, with some veering seen in the
low-levels.  This is helping to support training convective bands.

The mesoscale guidance broadly supports heavy rainfall in the
region, with high chances of 3"+ across southeast OK, northwest
AR, and some of southern MO.  The two areas of heavy rainfall are
expected to merge with a potential increase in intensity as warm
air advection increases MU CAPE into the region over the next
several hours due to strengthening 850 hPa inflow from the Gulf of
Mexico.  Some veering to the low-level flow should continue
eastward progression, but also increase the likelihood for cell
training as the flow becomes more unidirectional with height.=20
Given the ingredients available, hourly rain totals to 2.5" with
local totals to 5" are expected over the next several hours, which
would prove too much for saturating soils across portions of
eastern OK and southwest AR.  Such rainfall would be problematic
in the terrain of the Ozarks as well.  Given the above, chose the
flash flooding likely category as scattered instances of such are
expected through 06z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5roeQX5FJkgHaqNiYugR-h_BHSGYwzeRuOBttKnx0vGVCyXi9xIkJ9nsI1XZrgAJKz2O=
qlqQtvL4M1H9-6pU3n9apao$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...
SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37909406 37639210 37599025 37038960 34749105=20
            33719305 33079646 33279801 34459757 34859724=20
            36089668 37419605 37489496=20

=3D =3D =3D
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