ACUS11 KWNS 032120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032119=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-032215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Red River Valley in southern
Oklahoma an North Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 702...

Valid 032119Z - 032215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues.

SUMMARY...A mature bowing segment and isolated leading storm will
pose an increased risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes in the
next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Across southern portions of Tornado Watch 70s, a mature
bowing segment has maintained organization as it tracks along the
Red River Valley in southern OK and north TX. The environment ahead
of this convection remains unstable and strongly sheared suggesting
a continued severe threat. Low-level shear is expected to increase
as the bow approaches the modified outflow boundary/warm front in
southern OK. More isolated convection has also slowly deepened ahead
of the bow across parts of Carter and Love Counties in OK. There
remains the potential for a supercell or two to evolve and
strengthen within the strongly sheared air mass. Along with the risk
for damaging winds (some 70+ mph), a few tornadoes are possible,
both from embedded circulations and with any supercells able to
become established.

..Lyons.. 11/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-g2m33ffgToNVI1Ap-FQgjeffyzNcM-jpMir8zbblU2GiEKvFltTwIPzJ_DuzV74nAjNBvmQ5=
jLKvuXR08NGTFijjqc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34179807 34399761 34639700 34709653 34719612 34599596
            34439587 34099593 33939593 33769605 33619632 33539686
            33509722 33469766 33489783 33559793 34179807=20


=3D =3D =3D
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