AWUS01 KWNH 031956
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1118
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...central and southern OK...North TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032000Z - 040200Z

Summary...Localized 2-4" short term totals likely to result in
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding through the
afternoon.

Discussion...Convective coverage is increasing this afternoon
across North TX and southern OK, the most intense of which
initiated in the vicinity of the dry line this morning (and is
quickly organizing into a distinct bow echo). This region is
encompassed within a large warm sector and associated low-level
convergence, and instability is once again building after the
passage of an organized MCS overnight. The mesoscale environment
is characterized by ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (except over
northeast OK, though continued warm air advection and isentropic
lift will change that over the next several hours), PWATs of
1.4-1.7 inches (near record levels, per OUN sounding climatology),
and effective bulk shear of 45-55 kts.

Continued building instability within this favorable environment
will support increased coverage and intensity of convection into
the evening. This is especially the case given the upper-level
support, as upper-level diffluence is even more impressive than
the low-level convergence (with a phased northern and southern
stream allowing for idealized left-exit region of a sub-tropical
jet streak and right-entrance region of a polar jet streak). Given
the prior rainfall over the past 24 hours (locally up to 3-6"+
over much of OK, per MRMS estimates), antecedent conditions will
be more supportive of excessive rainfall with this next round of
storms.

Hi-res CAMs are in relatively good agreement with convective
evolution, suggesting the potential for localized 2-4" totals over
the next 3-6 hours (per HREF probability-matched mean QPF). While
fast storm motions should generally limit hourly totals to 1.5" or
so (at least through 02z), localized repeating/training of these
rates should support those advertised 3-6 hour totals. The
corresponding Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) are on the order of only
1.5-3.0" (given the aforementioned antecedent conditions), so
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are considered
likely.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9GoAKxlm-gjyqehAGTrt7i73DGblpUjZlVoVP1BmPCr1TKxp0RuyDh2p2TxivO--G7yp=
S_OTBIUEhW8e9zT53YjaygU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36849700 36489552 34709566 33309664 32669743=20
            32449864 32149960 32259996 33489973 34559997=20
            35109963 35689850=20

=3D =3D =3D
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