ACUS11 KWNS 031950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031949=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-032045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern oklahoma and northern TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 031949Z - 032045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms moving into/developing in a strongly sheared air
mass over parts of OK/TX may pose an increasing risk of tornadoes. A
new Tornado Watch is likely needed.

DISCUSSION...A robust cluster of storms is organizing west of a
strongly sheared and destabilizing air mass across parts of southern
OK and western North TX. While predominately linear, these storms
are moving into a modified warm frontal zone with strong low-level
effective helicity (0-1 km >350 ms2/s2 from the TLX VAD) sufficient
for tornadoes. Diffuse heating and subtle confluence are also
apparent ahead of the QLCS across western north TX. Hi-res guidance
and observational trends suggests additional, more discrete, storms
may develop/mature this afternoon. With moderate buoyancy and
large-low level hodograph curvature, supercells and QLCS
mesovorticies with the potential for tornadoes could materialize. A
Tornado watch is likely.

..Lyons/Hart.. 11/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9ZgSPCuduZO-f8BkhcoQFmIJm0k0ECnd5UBW0fd6v7gqDh-Ll8_nYXVrebonuxd47n9b_uX0A=
pUKzpBXmqW7qGoYiBA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35229824 35549777 35699693 35779631 35569547 35409513
            34709487 34569494 34189520 33679616 33539672 33499722
            33739773 34249832 35229824=20


=3D =3D =3D
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