AWUS01 KWNH 031018
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-031435-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
517 AM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...southwestern MO, southeastern KS, northwestern
AR, northeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031016Z - 031435Z

Summary...A localized occurrence or two of flash flooding will be
possible across southeastern KS/northeastern OK into the Ozarks
through 15Z. While an overall weakening trend in flash flood
potential is expected over the next few hours, rainfall rates of
1-2 in/hr through training may overlap hydrologically sensitive
locations, resulting in runoff issues.

Discussion...10Z radar/satellite imagery showed an MCS tracking
across eastern OK with a convectively induced vorticity max (MCV)
inferred across east-central OK. South of the MCV, a convective
line was rapidly advancing eastward, limiting the threat for
short-term flash flooding over eastern OK. Farther north, rainfall
was more stratiform in nature with embedded convective elements.
Strong lift was occurring across eastern KS/OK within a coupled
upper level jet exit/entrance region supporting a divergent and
diffluent regime aloft. Instability was limited however, with
MUCAPE values of ~500 J/kg or less per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

Expectations are for the MCV and associated areas of heavy rain
with embedded training to track toward the northeast over the next
2-4 hours. While instability is forecast to remain limited across
northeastern OK/southeastern KS into adjacent areas of MO/AR,
strong dynamic lift ahead of the MCV and within the favorable
divergent/diffluent pattern aloft may favor brief instances of SW
to NE training within the unidirectional SW flow. Rainfall rates
of 1 to 2 in/hr will be possible along with an additional 2 to 3
inches of rain (locally higher possible) through 15Z. Overlap of
these heavier rainfall rates may overlap with urban areas or an
estimated 4-6 inches of rain which impacted the I-44 corridor in
northeastern OK over the past 12 hours, to generate localized
flash flooding. However, with time, weakening of rainfall
intensities are expected with increased forward progression and a
less favorable thermodynamic environment.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5Cub1FPd4NFK64jn8GQ1EqyYez2ipYeVqsMrLaYvdXwAwh8_sCiDYnA4hlw5Mdglsc-R=
f6cTdO_OJbAdFRZ6fbLpod0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38639458 38499366 37579339 35519420 35369575=20
            36089627 37589583=20

=3D =3D =3D
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