ACUS48 KWNS 030941
SWOD48
SPC AC 030939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
NHC is forecasting a high probability of TC formation in the
Caribbean by D2. Predictability is low along the FL Gulf Coast
vicinity regarding downstream tornado potential during D4-5, with
large spread in guidance at this time frame and beyond.

Meanwhile, modified moisture return will ensue on D4-5 over the
southern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough evolving into
a cutoff low across the Southwest. Given an initially inverted
surface trough, severe potential should be limited/mesoscale-focused
on D5/Thursday. With an emerging consensus of ensemble guidance
suggesting acceleration of the upper low onto the Great Plains,
severe potential may increase next weekend with broadening of the
warm-moist sector in the central states. Predictability is far too
low to warrant consideration of greater than 15 percent areas yet.

..Grams.. 11/03/2024

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