ACUS03 KWNS 030742
SWODY3
SPC AC 030741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...Gulf Coast States...
Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a
slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most
of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the
Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur
from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS
Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear
should preclude an organized severe threat.

A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the
northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This
should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before
expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting
a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the
next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential
tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday
morning.

...Great Lakes...
A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant
elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing
northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and
strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional,
low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the
IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI.
Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability
during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present.

..Grams.. 11/03/2024

$$

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