AWUS01 KWNH 030424
FFGMPD
MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-030930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 AM EDT Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...northwestern TX into central/northeastern OK, far
southeastern KS, far southwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030422Z - 030930Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are expected to develop in a
zone from northwestern TX into central OK and northeastern OK
through 09Z. Some spillover into southeastern KS and southwestern
MO may occur as well. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and areas of
training may support localized totals over 4 to 5 inches through
10Z.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 04Z showed an eastward
propagating line of thunderstorms tracking across the southern TX
Panhandle, just east of the Caprock Escarpment. Additional showers
and thunderstorms were noted across the Red River into much of OK.
All of this activity was located near or northwest of a remnant
outflow boundary which extended from near MAF to RPH in TX, then
northeastward into OK between TUL and OKM. SPC mesoanalysis data
indicated MLCAPE values were 500-1500 J/kg along and south of the
outflow boundary, while CAPE dropped off significantly to the
north of the outflow. 850 mb winds of 35-45 kt from the south were
present over west-central TX into central/eastern OK, overrunning
the outflow and forcing convection. Large scale lift was present
over the region out ahead of a longwave trough axis moving through
the southwestern U.S. and within the divergent and diffluent
left-exit region of a prominent 110-130 kt upper level jet max
streaking across northern Mexico into southwestern TX.

Broad forcing ahead of the eastward moving upper level trough over
the Southwest will allow southerly low level winds to maintain and
locally strengthen over TX/OK tonight, continuing overrunning
thunderstorms north of the outflow. The outflow boundary itself is
expected to become more diffuse with time over OK but stay better
defined over TX, to the south of the eastward advancing line.

Despite the forward progression of the convective line east of the
Caprock, mean southwesterly steering flow will align with the axis
of low level forcing, whether it be the outflow boundary or
convective lines near/north of the outflow to support training.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr (locally higher) are likely to develop
within areas of training with multiple hours of heavy rain
possible over a given location.

Despite mostly dry ground conditions from ongoing drought, high
rainfall rates over a short period of time are expected to
overwhelm soils and support areas of flash flooding, with
localized totals over 4 to 5 inches possible. The flash flood risk
will be enhanced if these higher rates overlap with urban
corridors, including the Oklahoma City and/or Tulsa metro.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-ZkYQZkpltbcbSITwUyr7lRNxPu9ZszvZsBo8UfV0cs4d_wCRn8s1Xvo6_3ly43CIlMl=
xcbEvFbqWUm700Ae-eRUdrY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...SGF...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37399543 37189435 36199484 35119577 33759736=20
            33349826 32540053 32530124 32890105 33820040=20
            34779997 36239789=20

=3D =3D =3D
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