ACUS11 KWNS 022334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022333=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into the southern Permian
Basin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 698...

Valid 022333Z - 030030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk remains confined to a small area in the
northern portion of Tornado Watch 698.

DISCUSSION...The threat of a brief tornado, large hail, and locally
severe gusts generally remains confined to Lea, Andrews, and Gaines
Counties within Tornado Watch 698. Here, backed surface winds (along
the composite outflow boundary) beneath veering/strengthening winds
with height are contributing to ample clockwise hodograph curvature
(per nearby VWP data and mesoanalysis). This enhanced helicity and
focused mesoscale ascent is favoring the maintenance of a discrete
surface-based supercell capable of producing additional brief
tornadoes, large hail, and locally damaging gusts. A couple
semi-discrete cells to the north of the outflow boundary will also
pose a localized severe risk, mainly in the form of marginally
severe hail.

..Weinman.. 11/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_-0EuDfSoxJ2Az1zNbQrrGJzabh46JHuMskjKUd4r4X4x-Qr3dz_F44qH9ixrv8FGRjXiH9li=
JSHnbejX0UK5l1iSrQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32530224 32320248 32270346 32630353 33130319 33110276
            32860225 32530224=20


=3D =3D =3D
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