AWUS01 KWNH 020941
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-021540-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 AM EDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...eastern NM into TX Panhandle and western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020940Z - 021540Z

SUMMARY...The flash flood threat will continue through 15Z for
eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK with additional
rainfall totals of 2-4 inches. While additional areas of flash
flooding will be likely, coverage is expected to remain isolated
to scattered.

DISCUSSION...0915Z radar imagery showed that an axis of
thunderstorms stretched northeastward from south-central NM into
the TX Panhandle with 2 to 4+ inches of rain estimated via MRMS
since 03Z between ROW and AMA near US 70 in NM and US 60 in TX.
Some recent southeastward bowing was observed to the southeast of
AMA which has reduced training due to the reflectivity axis
falling out of alignment with the mean southwesterly steering
flow. However, greater lift is approaching ahead of an eastward
advancing shortwave trough axis extending SSW from CO into western
NM and southeastern AZ with left-exit and right-entrance ascent
occurring with a pair of developing 100 kt upper level jet streaks
located over northwestern Mexico and the central Plains.

Recent RAP forecasts indicate the 40 kt 850 mb southeasterly LLJ
is at its peak and subtle veering and weakening of the flow is
expected through 15Z across southeastern NM into western TX.
Realignment of the low level convergence axis is forecast to occur
a bit south of its current position as the veering occurs and a
weakness in magnitude occurs over the TX Panhandle near I-40 as
seen in RAP output. As the aforementioned shortwave trough
advances east early this morning some eastward translation to the
low level convergence axis will be possible, allowing for the axis
of training heavy rain (1-2 in/hr rainfall rates) to shift south
and eventually east, out of NM, remaining along the northern edge
of a plume of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE.

Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher
possible) are expected in a few locations along the low level
convergence axis but coverage should remain isolated to scattered
across the broader region of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and
western OK. Therefore, while additional flash flooding will be
likely, it is not expected to be contiguous across the area
through 15Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8w5Z6C4V381UeKdmunju8WV7RMesLDcBAXBV8jgfN_M9UNpTxks9uKQpFHPmwd3v4Caa=
rjIw10UnJszxdk9DdDRwkKg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36620010 36559949 36119924 35569926 34969966=20
            34260065 33780198 33370342 33230420 33530458=20
            34350398 35300280 36020156=20

=3D =3D =3D
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