ACUS48 KWNS 020842
SWOD48
SPC AC 020841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A benign pattern for appreciable severe appears likely to commence
by D4/Tuesday, although low-probability severe potential may exist
during the period. In the wake of a dampening positive-tilt
mid/upper trough near the Great Lakes on D4, an upstream shortwave
trough digging over the northern Intermountain West should evolve
into a cutoff low across the Southwest mid-week. A cold front
slowing and then stalling along the western Gulf Coast to Lower MS
Valley should be a focus for convection lingering from D3 into D4.
Weakening of both deep-layer winds and forcing for ascent will be
limiting factors to the severe-storm threat.

Modified moisture return will eventually spread back towards the
southern High Plains, in advance of the cutoff low. This suggests
increasing thunder potential on D6/Thursday, along an inverted
surface trough. Even with some ensemble members suggesting ejection
of the cutoff low onto the central/southern Great Plains late in the
period, the overall pattern appears unlikely to support greater than
15-percent severe probabilities.

..Grams.. 11/02/2024

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