AWUS01 KWNH 012212
FFGMPD
LAZ000-020130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
610 PM EDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Areas affected...South-Central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012210Z - 020130Z

SUMMARY...A localized threat of flash flooding will exist through
the early evening hours from slow-moving areas of heavy showers
and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery in conjunction with late-day GOES-E IR
satellite imagery shows a general north/south axis of slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms impacting some of the parishes of
south-central LA. The convection is generally aligned in close
proximity to a surface trough and is embedded within a modestly
unstable, but moist environment.

MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg are noted along with PWs of 1.75
to 2 inches, and this has been facilitating some rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger convective cores.
Cell-motions though have been rather slow over the last couple of
hours, and this is favoring some locally heavy storm totals.

The loss of daytime heating combined with the convective
overturning process should yield a gradual waning of the diurnal
instability that is pooled across the region, and this will
support an eventual weakening of the axis of convection with
decreasing rainfall rates in time.

Locally as much as an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain will be
possible over the next few hours going through the early evening
hours before the activity weakens. Given some of the rains that
occurred yesterday, these additional totals may support a
localized flash flood threat, but any runoff concerns will mainly
be of the urban variety.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9YEuvS8gngSTPxI8jU8QsFwJP7aQC6OeiLUeUY7GEibCB8aE-UQnYkUMLVM6bQ5XRk0n=
U3wXQbzinpsqJ0cilpJ-O7M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30929087 30239052 29579057 29469109 30069141=20
            30809146=20

=3D =3D =3D
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