ACUS03 KWNS 011929
SWODY3
SPC AC 011928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late
afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and
southern Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily
eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge
into the High Plains late.  At the surface, an associated cold front
will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend
from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to
the southern Plains by Monday morning.

...Central and southern Plains...
The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate,
given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection
across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area.  As such, areas of
potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain.  Despite this,
an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will
exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support
severe storms locally.  Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather
broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains
remains the most reasonable forecast.  Where greater instability can
evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from
western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large
hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve.  Otherwise, locally
damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which
may persist well into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 11/01/2024

$$

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