ACUS48 KWNS 010900
SWOD48
SPC AC 010859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Primary severe potential is focused on D4/Monday from parts of the
south-central states into the Mid-MS Valley. An emerging squall line
should develop early morning Monday (late D3 into early D4) across
parts of west TX. This should occur ahead of strong forcing for
ascent attendant to a shortwave impulse and mid-level speed max
moving through the basal portion of a Southwest trough. Consensus of
guidance supports a positive-tilt ejection of this wave into the
central states, with multi-day trends of a weaker surface cyclone.
This should yield meridional deep-layer flow predominantly
paralleling the enlarging squall line. This will also support a
largely asymmetrical low-level flow regime, with the core of the
low-level jet rapidly advancing north-northeast from the
south-central states towards the southern Great Lakes. This should
become increasingly separated from the plume of mid 60s surface dew
points that should struggle to advect beyond the Mid-MS Valley.

The degree of instability with northward extent in OK/KS across the
Mid-MS Valley is questionable with abundant preceding convection
ahead of the probable squall line. Primary daytime severe threat may
be confined to parts of the Red River Valley and TX, with a
late-day/nocturnal severe threat extending northeast towards the
Mid-MS Valley. With weak mid-level lapse rates limiting instability
in the open warm-moist sector, along with the aforementioned
synoptic concerns, confidence is low in how widespread and vigorous
severe wind/tornado potential will be.

..Grams.. 11/01/2024

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