ACUS03 KWNS 010729
SWODY3
SPC AC 010728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KS TO NORTH
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late
afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central to
southern Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto
the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest
Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of
the trough across the central to southern Great Plains. Mid-level
southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will
still remain on the backside of the trough before finally ejecting
through the base on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous
shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis should occur over
the central High Plains. This low should reach the Upper Midwest by
12Z Monday, with additional cyclogenesis occurring in west TX.

...Central to southern Great Plains...
A complex setup is expected on Sunday into Sunday night with
multiple competing elements that should support/hinder severe
potential, along with substantial mesoscale uncertainty. As such, a
broad level 2-SLGT risk remains warranted at this juncture.

Extensive convection is expected late D1 through much of D2 across
the southern High Plains into the central and southern Great Plains.
Some of this will linger into Sunday, most likely in the OK to north
TX area. With persistent low-level warm theta-e advection and
upper-level difluence, convection may continue through the diurnal
heating cycle. Best chance for severe in this regime may be focused
along the trailing outflow/baroclinic zone where it intersects with
the west TX dryline.

A separate area of severe potential should develop near the central
High Plains cyclone in western to central KS. Here, steeper
mid-level lapse rates along and another day of moisture influx
should be adequate for late afternoon to evening storms. With
eastern extent, however, the deleterious effects of persistent
OK/north TX convection may yield a more confined/limited MLCAPE
plume in KS/NE.

A final round of severe convection may develop overnight across west
TX as forcing for ascent becomes strong ahead of the aforementioned
wave. Across all regimes, mid to upper hodograph elongation should
be pronounced, yielding a conditionally favorable environment for
supercells and organized clusters.

..Grams.. 11/01/2024

$$

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