ACUS02 KWNS 010546
SWODY2
SPC AC 010545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night
across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor
for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across a part of the
Permian Basin and South Plains of west Texas during the late
afternoon and early evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
Widespread convection will be ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the
southern High Plains, centered on southeast NM to the Panhandles,
within a robust low-level warm theta-e advection regime. A
semi-organized linear cluster may be present along the southern edge
of the convective swath, and could be maintained through the diurnal
heating cycle. Low to mid-level lapse rates downstream will be weak,
suggesting localized strong gusts early.

A mesoscale corridor of sustained supercell potential is evident
over parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains from mid-afternoon
to early evening. Regenerative convective development is expected in
the wake of morning activity, along the effective outflow-reinforced
baroclinic zone arcing to the west-southwest. Best potential for
boundary-layer heating will be across the TX Trans-Pecos. Downstream
of a full-latitude trough from the Canadian Rockies to the northern
Gulf of CA, a strengthening upper jet over northern Mexico should
overspread the Trans-Pecos late day. This will yield favorable mid
to upper-level hodograph elongation with southwesterly speed shear
immediately downstream. A couple longer-lived supercells may develop
and move along the mesoscale outflow boundary, with a threat for
golf- to tennis-ball-sized hail, despite moderate mid-level lapse
rates. With an early evening increase in the low-level jet, a couple
tornadoes may develop as well.

Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with a more moist-adiabatic
profile extending northeastward into OK. Still, with the evening
increase in the low-level jet, potential will exist for low-level
rotation with embedded convection along the baroclinic zone. While
convective mode will be messy, and uncertainty exists with the
spatial placement of the corridor in the wake of daytime convection,
the persistent influx of mid 60s surface dew points suggests a
low-probability tornado/wind threat may extend into Saturday night.

..Grams.. 11/01/2024

$$

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