ACUS02 KWNS 311727
SWODY2
SPC AC 311725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal
hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High
Plains Friday evening into the overnight.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the western half of
the country Friday, amplifying with time as short-wave energy
initially off the West Coast digs south-southeastward toward
northern California through the period.

At the surface, a cold front will shift across the Northwest and
into the Great Basin and California, in tandem with the digging
upper feature.  Meanwhile, a remnant/west-to-east baroclinic zone
will persist from the southeastern U.S. westward into the southern
Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Ahead of the amplifying western U.S. upper trough, weak mid-level
height falls will support a zone of low-level warm advection across
the southern High Plains vicinity.  Afternoon heating of a gradually
moistening low-level airmass will result in modest destabilization,
with 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected.  Little nocturnal
decrease in instability is expected, as low-level theta-e advection
supported by persistent surface southeasterlies should offset any
diurnal cooling effects.

Given the modest but sufficient CAPE expected by afternoon, ascent
should support gradual development of isolated to scattered storms
-- initially in the vicinity of higher terrain.  Aided by
veering/moderately increasing flow with height, shear should support
multicell organization and potentially some mid-level rotation.  As
such, risk for hail and/or wind reaching severe criteria exists
locally, with a couple of the strongest storms.  This potential
should continue overnight, with a northward/northwestward expansion
of convection as the low-level theta-e advection increases in tandem
with a strengthening south-southeasterly low-level jet.

..Goss.. 10/31/2024

$$

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