ACUS03 KWNS 291908
SWODY3
SPC AC 291906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST
TO TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms, capable of producing gusty/damaging
winds and possibly a tornado, are expected Thursday morning and
afternoon within a narrow zone extending from the Midwest to East
Texas.

...Synopsis...
An upper short-wave trough is forecast to cross the Upper
Mississippi Valley and then Upper Great Lakes region Thursday,
before continuing across Ontario and eventually Quebec and the Lower
Great Lakes Thursday night.  Meanwhile farther west, an upper low
will gradually move onshore across the Pacific Northwest.

At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Great
Lakes and Midwest, and eventually New England and the Northeast,
while sagging more slowly southward across the Tennessee and Lower
Mississippi Valleys through Friday morning.

...Lower Michigan southwestward across parts of East Texas...
A frontal band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to extend
from the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity southwestward to
eastern Texas at the start of the period, accompanied by
limited/local risk for gusty winds.

As the front advances, instability should remain quite limited --
particularly from the Ohio Valley northward.  Still, tall/thin CAPE
profiles combined with favorably strong/veering flow with height
suggest local/limited risk for strong wind gusts -- and possibly a
tornado -- as far north as the Lower Michigan vicinity.  As such, an
expansion of Level 1/MRGL risk is being included for this forecast
cycle.

Potential for stronger storms will remain largely confined to the
daytime hours, though may linger locally into the evening over
southern potions of the risk area (the Tennessee area southward).

..Goss.. 10/29/2024

$$

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