FOUS30 KWBC 290034
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
834 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...

A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Plains by
Wednesday morning. Surface troughing will help Gulf moisture to
lift northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler air
filtering in from the west/north will encounter the warm air
advection associated with the low-level jet. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
across the central portion of the country (SPC denotes a Slight
Risk of severe wx), which in turn will increase the potential for
heavy rainfall and local areas of concern for flooding. The
Marginal Risk area was maintained over the region to account for
the somewhat lower-end threat. At this point there appears to be
two distinct areas of concentration for the heaviest QPF. The first
near the juncture of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas state borders
amid areas of higher instability and the second across Iowa into
Wisconsin near the stronger height falls. Very dry antecedent
conditions should help minimize any threat (ergo, current FFG
guidance values are high), but a Marginal Risk outline still seems
appropriate for this lead time with room to adjust with future
guidance (including the CAM guidance).

Fracasso/Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ypW0NzTnD9wHcaQpSTR0aewJNdy-kpQOnzb7jJXHZ4B=
0rX20KJGDw5JlCnsS7EUj7biS2T7G-nJVC9vAxxeBHkDJvg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ypW0NzTnD9wHcaQpSTR0aewJNdy-kpQOnzb7jJXHZ4B=
0rX20KJGDw5JlCnsS7EUj7biS2T7G-nJVC9vAxxeFnLh10E$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ypW0NzTnD9wHcaQpSTR0aewJNdy-kpQOnzb7jJXHZ4B=
0rX20KJGDw5JlCnsS7EUj7biS2T7G-nJVC9vAxxezBV07PI$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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