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If, as I was saying Friday, it's important to realize that the Street's
beliefs, expectations, and reactions are generally accurately reflected
in prices, it's also important to do our own analysis.  ("Generally"
because when big players are "gaming" the market, they CAN distort
things.)  Sometimes the Street's expectations are irrational and its
reactions are overblown.  The good employment news last week WAS good
news.  (We'll see tomorrow what notice the FOMC meeting takes of the
improving economy.)  The Street didn't like it because they enjoy the
easy money.  But in the long run it's better that business not NEED the
extremely accomodative monetary policy and to have more employment.  (If
the Street wants a "tax" on the economy to worry about, they'd be better
advised to consider crude futures hitting $63.99/bbl today!)  The
essence of being a "contrarian" investor is having a better judgement of
over all circumstances, understanding how the Street's poor judgement
has been reflected in prices, accurately judging both current and future
value (when the Street finally sees the error of its ways), and being
able to take appropriate action in time.  If you do that, you'll be a
successful investor.

Today's market action?  You don't really want to know.  Prices got off
to a nice start, but it didn't last.  They quickly turned-tail and fell
all day.  But they didn't fall too much, ending down modestly on falling
volume as well, -5% below average.  If the market were Bullish, that
wouldn't be bad, but it's not.  Both the Oscillator and my timing signal
are falling like rocks.  I doubt the resistance line will stand, but
we'll see.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __     __<_     __|_     ___|     08/02
 __|_     __     __|_     __|_     ___|     08/03
 _|__     __     __|_     _|__     ___|     08/04
 __     <___     ___|     08/05
 _<__     <___     __|_     _<__     <___     ___|     08/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/01/05 S&P:    1194
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Sure, when...OINK FLAP OINK FLAP...Well I'll be damned!
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