FOUS30 KWBC 281844
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Fracasso


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...

A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Plains by=20
Wednesday morning. Surface troughing will help Gulf moisture to=20
lift northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler air=20
filtering in from the west/north will encounter the warm air=20
advection associated with the low-level jet. Showers and=20
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity=20
across the central portion of the country (SPC denotes a Slight=20
Risk of severe wx), which in turn will increase the potential for=20
heavy rainfall and local areas of concern for flooding. The=20
Marginal Risk area was maintained over the region to account for=20
the somewhat lower-end threat. At this point there appears to be=20
two distinct areas of concentration for the heaviest QPF. The first
near the juncture of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas state borders=20
amid areas of higher instability and the second across Iowa into=20
Wisconsin near the stronger height falls. Very dry antecedent=20
conditions should help minimize any threat (ergo, current FFG=20
guidance values are high), but a Marginal Risk outline still seems=20
appropriate for this lead time with room to adjust with future=20
guidance (including the CAM guidance).=20

Fracasso/Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6NZqk6E5N-D4O6jbu13zC--WhZtug9o2ITl0itgkBBui=
0GKbEgjTvuxVwizH5eQQ4QoeyL5Ef4MYrN2wvjBSJlHs6cI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6NZqk6E5N-D4O6jbu13zC--WhZtug9o2ITl0itgkBBui=
0GKbEgjTvuxVwizH5eQQ4QoeyL5Ef4MYrN2wvjBSsmf5XB0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6NZqk6E5N-D4O6jbu13zC--WhZtug9o2ITl0itgkBBui=
0GKbEgjTvuxVwizH5eQQ4QoeyL5Ef4MYrN2wvjBSvN-j7m0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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