Tom Adams  wrote or quoted:

> Is there a mathematical or statistical theory of evolution that allow
> the calculation or estimation of the amount of trial and error it
> takes to produce a particular organism.
> 
> Suppose that you had to argue that humans did not evolve from
> single-celled organisms in 10,000 years without using historical data,
> but just based on the limited capabilities of the trial and error
> process that was available over that period.  Is there a developed
> mathematical or statistical theory that addresses this kind of
> question?

If trials were random modifications of existing organisms, information
theory offers a guide to how many selective events are typically needed
to transmit bits of information into a population from the environment.

Unfortunately for any such attempt, evolution uses a highly-non random 
process to generate trials.

Even before genetic engineering, organisms could identify mates with 
complimentary traits - and engage in deliberate, self-directed breeding 
programs.

This is a severe complication for any simple modelling approach.
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