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Today's trading range was only about 6pts, from high to low.  It closed
up very modestly on only +3% above average volume.  (yawn....)

So, today closes out the second week.  What we see is a week of
indecision, more confirmation that last week's "January barometer" was
little more than either "hopeful optimism" or "market
manipulation",
take your pick.  The range for the whole week was something less than
15pts, closing up 3pts for the week!  Where are the signs of the
Street's convictions?  OK, there were a few down days during November's
buying by the mutual funds.  I can't say that the "Flagpole" formation's
classic resolution has been violated, yet.  But I still say that was
much too optimistic, a "head fake".

I could be wrong.  The market's changes of direction happen on specific
days, at specific points.  But it's just too risky to try to play those.
I want to hang back a bit and see if it's a move or just another "fake
out".  So periodically, when we hear someone touting, well AFTER the
fact, that the market gained X% since whenever, I get annoyed!  What
does it MEAN?  That there were easy profits there to me made by
perspicacious investors?  Hogwash!  It's a meaningless number, like many
others we are fed as "news".  Essentially it's the same gripe I had
several days ago when the President was touting the employment numbers.
Numbers have to be put in perspective!  That's why I run the charts I
do, and why the "mini-charts" below are as they are.  (I started by
providing actual numbers, and changed to this "digested" form.  It's not
bad, on six different dimensions of the market providing you both the
relationship of today's value to historical norms and the short term
trend, all on one line!)

I think one of the best examples of this was in 2004 when we'd been in a
declining trading-range 75pts wide all year, tested the bottom then the
top in late summer, fallen back into the middle, then broke out to close
the year about 75pts above the breakout.  Reporters were measuring the
"Bull Market" from the August lows, even though it was still within the
same declining trading-range until nearly November.  There was every
indication until then that the market was still in the same old funky
mood.  Reporting on a 150pt gain from 1065, 14%, in some 4 months, as I
heard, does nobody any favors!  The gain for the YEAR was just over
100pts, 9%, and that's what investors should have heard.  And that "Bull
Market"?  It evaporated in 2005, but the reporters didn't announce they
were wrong.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     ___>     ___>     01/09
 _>__     _>__     __|_     __>_     ___>     ___>     01/10
 __>_     __>_     __|_     __>_     ___|     ___>     01/11
 _|__     __>_     __|_     __>_     __     01/12
 ___     __|_     __>_     __     01/13

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  01/03/06 S&P:    1269
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Faster Hosses, Younger Wimmen, Older Whisky, More MIPS...
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