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Prices made steady growth today, closing up nearly enough to be
significant.  Volume increased too, but was still a skosh below average.
This was my volunteering morning so I wasn't able to keep up with the
"news" of what encouraged the Street.  But it's more reliable to look at
the numbers, to see what investors were actually doing with their money.

So, it was nice, but nothing to get excited about.  In fact, for a "low
volume day" like this, I wouldn't want to see it push to new highs.
That would be what we call a "divergence".  At 1243 today we're just
below the highs of this summer.  I've pencilled that on my charts as an
expected "resistance" line.  It's my "put up or shut
up" line.  If
prices turn away then the action of the past month was just a head-fake,
the Street stripping some short-term profits from the market, but being
afraid to drive prices into "uncharted territory".  (Well, that's not
entirely true, the last time we were at these levels was around the
middle of 2001 and we were on our way down.)  If it goes through on
lower volume, then I KNOW it's just short-term market manipulation. It
needs to push through with notable enthusiasm in volume to set new
expectations.

Why haven't I drawn a line under this latest rally, a "rising bottoms"
line through the intermediate lows?  Because it's far too steep to be
real.  That would only be relevant to a short-term "Day Trader".  There
will be corrections that would bust it, but wouldn't really damage the
over-all seasonal rally.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     __>_     __>_     |___     __|_     __>_     11/11
 _>__     __>_     __>_     _|__     __|_     __>_     11/14
 _|__     __>_     __>_     __|_     ___     11/15
 ___     __>_     __     11/16
 __|_     __|_     __>_     __     11/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/31/05 S&P:    1207
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Safe sex means never having to say "You've got WHAT?!?"
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