ACUS01 KWNS 240526
SWODY1
SPC AC 240525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce hail and gusty winds from northeast Kansas
and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of
Iowa.

...Northeast Kansas to Iowa...

Strong short-wave trough is currently progressing across the Pacific
Northwest and should advance quickly into western WY/eastern UT by
sunrise. This feature will dig a bit southeast into the central High
Plains by late afternoon, then into the lower MO Valley by 25/12z.
As the short wave approaches the Plains, LLJ should respond then
focus across northeast KS into central IA shortly after peak
heating. Latest model guidance suggests this dynamic system will
encourage a warm front to advance north and extend from southeast NE
into western MO prior to a cold front surging into this region.
Current thinking is the strongest surface heating should be noted
from the TX Panhandle into northeast KS where 0-3km lapse rates are
expected to steepen such that CINH will be negligible by 22z.

While absolute values of PW are not expected to be that high, mid
50s surface dew points may be common across the warm sector over
eastern KS. This should yield MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg where
temperatures rise into the mid 80s. While scattered convection is
expected to develop along the surging cold front, low-level warm
advection is expected to aid initial development along the nose of
the LLJ across IA. Forecast soundings exhibit favorably strong
veering winds with height and ample shear for sustained, rotating
updrafts. It would appear some supercell threat is possible and
convection that develops near the steeper low-level lapse rate plume
could generate gusty winds. Otherwise, some risk for hail should
accompany elevated updrafts north of the warm front, along with warm
sector storms. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk for hail,
and this may still be warranted if sufficient severe coverage is
anticipated.

..Darrow/Marsh.. 10/24/2024

$$

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