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echo: stock_market
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from: Paul Rogers
date: 2005-12-02 15:59:00
subject: Market Action

Content-type: text/plain

The market wandered around a tight range all day.  It closed up less
than a half point, and volume sank to -5% below average.  This seems to
suggest a lack of conviction.

Greenspan "spoke" in a taped message today.  He feared continued deficit
spending would threaten not only America, but the entire world.  One
thing IS clear, we need to begin adapting our investing strategies to
the effects of the coming demogaphic change.  For example, a consequence
of the circunstances Greenspan spoke of, would be the rest of the world
"charging" us higher interest rates to finance our debt--just like your
credit card company will do!  Not only would that possibly affect us
individually and personally, but it would make fixed-income investments
more attractive relative to equities.

As investors we must "go with the flow" when it comes to short-term
strategies and tactics.  But our longer term strategies require accurate
estimations of the investment environment several years in the future,
which we monitor for correctness, but hold tight to in spite of the
erratic short term machinations of the market.  The demographic change
is coming, there's no argument about that.  Congresscritters will
continue to pander to constituents, whether it's permanent tax cuts or
healthcare.  We need to be investigating the long term results and
investing environment of those things we can reasonably predict.  And we
need to make sure we're right!
what kind of

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     __|_     __>_     __     11/28
 ___     ___     11/29
 __     ___     11/30
 ____     __|_     ___|     __>_     12/01
 __|_     ___     _|__     __>_     __>_     12/02

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/31/05 S&P:    1207
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... I have to stop now.  My fingers are getting hoarse!
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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