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When is a promise not a promise?  When your company keeps your
retirement contributions to capitalize the company, and then performs so
poorly that it has to file backruptcy, sending you to the government to
"guarantee" part of your pension benefits.   Anything business wants, it
gets.  Also in the airline industry, Delta revealed it failed to hedge
its fuel contracts and recently high spot prices are going to cause it
problems.  Petroleum & distillate inventories have been improving, which
should have pushed prices down.  Not quite!  Now traders say they're
worried about supplies next winter.  Intraday prices were over a dollar
higher than the close, pushing stocks down.  Then rumors that some hedge
fund is losing big from the GM downgrade to junk status began
circulating.  All that reinforces the scarey view of the future seen by
many investors.  

So, the market closed down almost enough to be significant on its own.
That was enough to push my timing signal back across the line, as shown
in my Momentum mini-chart below, to Sell!  Volume increased a little,
but still were -8% below recent averages.

Prices approached the 50-day Moving Average yesterday and were turned
away today.  That's Bearish.  It makes the 50-day line appear to be a
"resistance line".  You ARE prepared, aren't you?  Don't forget, there
was an awful lot of high-volume selling for the past two months.
Somebody was bailing out!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     __|_     _|__     __>_     __>_     __|_     05/03
 ___>     ___     ___>     __>_     05/04
 _>__     ____     ___>     __>_     05/05
 __>_     _     __>_     05/09
 _|__     __     05/10

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  05/10/05 S&P:    1166
Winner or Loser:  loser                 By:     -9

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain
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