From: Gene McAloon 

The retention problem is real and growing. Your selective citing of
comments made last May before a Congressional committee reflect what was
happening back then when flag-waving patriotism and war fever were running
high. That attitude has long gone.

The military recently increased it reenlistment bonus from $5000 to $10000,
but few are taking the offer according to news stories I have seen. The
retention problem for the Reserves in particular is real and huge.  Does
that mean there will be a draft?  No, it doesn't. That would be political
suicide. The public may still like Bush for his war on terrorism in
general, but there is increasing
disenchantment with the way the war in Iraq is going. There are too many
continuing casualties, it is going on far too long and the relatives of
reservists are becoming ever more irked that supposedly short term call-ups
are turning into year and a half hitches in Afghanistan or Iraq.

That partly explains Bush's rush to get an Iraqi government in place so
that most US troops can be sent home. It is after all an election year and
the seemingly never ending mess in Iraq has got to be cleared up if he
expects to get re-elected and the retention problem is part of that
problem.

On Tue, 20 Jan 2004 23:28:23 -0500, "Mark Hessey"
 wrote:

>
>"Rich Gauszka"  wrote in message
>news:400dfc3f$1{at}w3.nls.net...
>> I wonder how long it will take to go from retention crisis to The Draft?
>
>A long, long, long time.
>http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0120/p02s02-usmi.html
>Combat fatigue? In some ways Iraq duty helps Army
>
>"Moreover, although the deployments are placing unprecedented demands on the
>all-volunteer military, recruitment and retention are generally holding up,
>official statistics show. In the 2003 fiscal year, all four services met
>their recruiting and retention goals, with the exception of a retention
>shortfall in the Army reserves.
>Indeed, contrary to popular belief, deployments have historically had a
>positive effect on retention, at least initially.
>
>Some units in Iraq and Afghanistan report high retention rates. For example,
>mobilized Naval Reservists have a higher rate of retention than those not
>called up, naval reserve chief Vice Admiral John Totushek told a May 2003
>hearing. At the same hearing, the Army National Guard Bureau chief, Lt. Gen.
>Steven Blum, said he saw no evidence of a long-term recruiting or retention
>problem, adding, "so far ... it's been quite the opposite."
>
>
>

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