ACUS02 KWNS 221710
SWODY2
SPC AC 221709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast during the day, providing strong southwest winds and
cooling aloft. Upper ridging will then develop across the Plains as
a secondary shortwave trough moves from the Pacific Northwest into
the Rockies late.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Plains, and
into the Southeast, with a cold front moving across the lower Great
Lakes and trailing southwestward toward the TN Valley by late
afternoon. The tail end of this front will stall across the lower MS
Valley and toward the Red River.

A few weak thunderstorms are most probable late Wednesday afternoon
from parts of New York into western New England, as the cold front
interacts with steepening lapse rates and low levels of moisture.
Forecast soundings indicate perhaps only 100 J/kg MUCAPE, and as
such, severe weather is unlikely.

Elsewhere, a low chance of isolated lightning flashes may develop
over northeast TX into southeast OK, where heating will be strong
near the stalled front. Warm midlevel temperatures and weak forcing
will limit the overall coverage.

..Jewell.. 10/22/2024

$$

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