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December 7th, that's a day to remember.  Pearl Harbor, D-Day, Tarawa,
Monte Casino, Iwo Jima, "the Bulge", sometimes we need to keep some
historical perspective on things.  Sword doesn't cut, Juno isn't a
goddess, Omaha isn't in Nebraska.  Last night I saw a show about Scott's
attempt at the South Pole in 1912.  Seems like he planned everything as
well as one could, expecting normal conditions.  But he didn't get
normal conditions--a 3-week inversion layer made things much colder,
changing the snow surface, eliminating the normal tail-wind he counted
on to help push the sledges back, and making frostbite a certainty.  The
historic 2000-2002 Bear Market invited comparisons to the Great
Depression.  I think we've made Scott's mistake again.  This may not be
a "planned economy" in the Marxist sense, but in other ways, seeking
efficiency, there are few things in the economy that go unmonitored by
someone.  There's little "slop in the gears" that once provided a little
"waste" the "bottom-feeders" depended on.  If something
goes wrong, with
everything, all the world's economies, so tightly bound together through
the WTO, there will be severe consequences.  And I think it would be a
big mistake to plan our investments with the assumption the future has
to resemble the past we know.  I think "Plan B" needs to be built-in.

Enough of the historian's revere.  Today's market action stunk.  Prices
trudged lower, half way to being significant.  The good news is volume
continued to recede, -7% below average.

From a long term perspective, a retest of the 1245 level wouldn't be a
bad thing.  It might reinforce the impression it's a "Support Level".
But there's little time for that and a recovery to a new high for the
year.  (nudge, nudge, wink, wink)  If'n I had some tax-loss selling to
do by year-end, I think I'd do it right now--before additional supply
from Main Street drives prices lower.  We're 10pts from the not unlikely
high of the year--what more would I want?

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 ____     __|_     ___|     __>_     12/01
 __|_     ___     _|__     __>_     __>_     12/02
 _|__     ___     ___     12/05
 __|_     ___     __     12/06
 __     __     12/07

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/31/05 S&P:    1207
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

...   Oh, give me a phone, with a modem on loan..  
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35

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