ACUS03 KWNS 191919
SWODY3
SPC AC 191918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central
Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon
to early evening Monday.

...KS/OK/TX Panhandle...
The closed upper low over the Southwest should evolve into an open
wave by Monday as it ejects across the south-central High Plains and
towards the Lower/Mid-MO Valley by early Tuesday. A belt of 45-60 kt
500-mb southwesterlies should become prevalent within the southeast
quadrant of the shortwave trough, yielding hodograph elongation and
a conditionally favorable supercell wind profile.

Consensus of 12Z guidance suggests that a swath of elevated
convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection should be
ongoing along the leading edge of greater moisture emanating north
from west TX. The dry boundary layer downstream, mainly along and
east of the I-35 corridor in KS/OK, infers that diurnal
destabilization will remain spatially confined in the wake of the
morning activity. Small to marginally severe hail and locally strong
gusts might occur with the early-day convection as the belt of
strong mid-level flow increases from the TX Panhandle into
western/central KS. Bulk of guidance suggests that a separate round
of convective development should accompany the mid-level wave in the
western KS vicinity. How extensive this development may occur into
the northern periphery of the warm-moist sector is uncertain, given
the likely limited temporal window for appreciable boundary-layer
heating. Confidence is also low in the degree of southward
development along the arcing dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle.
But given the wind profile for potential supercells, especially from
southwest/south-central KS southward, a low-probability severe risk
appears warranted.

..Grams.. 10/19/2024

$$

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