AWUS01 KWNH 191809
FFGMPD
NMZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1104
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Areas affected...central to east-central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191806Z - 192330Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
central/east-central NM through 23Z. Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.5
in/hr and 15 minute rates locally over 0.5 inches are expected
within repeating/training regions of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...18Z water vapor imagery showed a well-defined closed
low over AZ, with only slow movement observed over the past 6
hours. Upper level flow to the east of the closed low was fairly
diffluent over NM with possible added lift occurring within the
left-exit region of a weakly defined jet streak located on the
south to southeast side of the closed low. MRMS-reflectivity has
shown the recent development of a SSE to NNW oriented axis of
stronger echoes over Lincoln into Torrance County, located on the
western edge of an axis of 500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE as depicted on
the 17Z SPC mesoanalysis.

Throughout the afternoon, greater insolation with breaks in cloud
cover and continued southeasterly low level moisture transport
will help to support an expanding coverage of 500 to 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE over central to eastern NM as depicted by recent runs of
the RAP, with the greatest instability over southeastern portions
of the state. The increased instability and low level convergence
on the eastern side of the closed low will likely contribute to
increasing thunderstorm coverage through 23Z. The greatest concern
for flash flood potential will exist along and just east of the
southern Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. While forecast
LFC-EL mean flow of 30-50 kt from the south will keep individual
cells moving, deep-layered southerly flow will allow for repeating
and short-term training of cells at times, supporting localized
hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches and 15-minute rates over 0.5
inches.

The southeast facing slopes of the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains have received 2 to 3+ inches of rain, much of that over
the past 12 hours, increasing soil moisture. While other areas of
NM have seen less than an inch over the past 24 hours, localized
potential for flash flooding will exist where higher intensity
rainfall repeats over the same location, especially with any
overlap of sensitive burn scar locations or flashy creeks/streams.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9cCkAtwuCgz9kCxaZfuzdpFSkckHH3TQgvmNlepUS0VF0gtzIFd_wB4vXseyR8NcLsKS=
QkQ2A0NVUAQkTjLiMAK2Rzw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36610437 36170409 35520412 33920435 32820478=20
            32500555 32500611 33100636 34680642 35800697=20
            36290701 36530678 36560631 36470601 36350589=20
            36230577 36160549 36200542 36300520 36420509=20
            36500487=20

=3D =3D =3D
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