AWUS01 KWNH 190512
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-191110-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Areas affected...Central to Northeast NM...South-Central CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190510Z - 191110Z

SUMMARY...A localized threat for flash flooding will develop going
through the overnight hours as greater concentrations of heavy
shower and thunderstorm activity occurs. The burn scar locations
will be most susceptible to runoff concerns.

DISCUSSION...A deep upper-level trough and associated closed low
over the Southwest U.S. will be moving very slowly down to the
southeast overnight. This will favor downstream areas of central
and eastern NM seeing an uptick deep layer ascent as divergence
aloft overspreads the region. Coinciding with this will be the
persistence of an increasingly moist southeast low-level jet of 30
to 40 kts which will be advancing up across eastern NM. The
overall PW environment currently is rather modest with PWs near
0.75 inches, but the latest CIRA-ALPW data shows a notable fetch
of moisture in the SFC-850 mb layer advancing gradually north and
west across the TX High Plains which eventually will become more
entrenched over eastern NM later tonight and Saturday morning.

MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 to 1000+ J/kg across
portions of central and eastern NM currently, and this coupled
with the deeper layer ascent and moisture transport from the TX
High Plains and Rio Grande Valley should favor a gradual increase
in the coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms. This will be
mainly focused in a southwest to northeast fashion from central to
northeast NM and to some extent over parts of south-central CO.

The latest hires CAM guidance suggests more increase in the
coverage and intensity of convection over the next few hours, and
radar imagery in conjunction with GOES-E IR satellite imagery
shows several clusters of fairly well-organized cold-topped
convection already evolving across the region.

Rainfall rates with the stronger pockets of convection overnight
may reach as high as 1 to 1.25 inches/hour, and given some
potential for localized cell-training, some rainfall totals may
reach as high as 2 to 3 inches. This will especially be the case
over the orographically favored Sangre De Cristo Mountains.

A localized threat for some flash flooding will exist with the
burn scar locations generally the most susceptible to seeing
runoff problems. In particular, the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn
scar area in the Sangre De Cristo Mountains will be at risk for
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9t6GemCbgfS6ZnVadRJDe0JuwfzOxNQVOKUxeZhIUAIeb7IGRiJo8QoHkiXDmKZj6TiI=
nmO8CfIe_bhki7gm0xhwv-4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37580437 37210381 36580373 35620403 34870454=20
            34670502 34780561 35050594 35720606 36220606=20
            36670589 37090559 37430507=20

=3D =3D =3D
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