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Plug your ears!  The DOW closed above 11,000 for the first time since
2001--WHEN we were going the other direction if you remember.  The S&P,
the market, ended positive again today--all 5 of the first trading
sessions of the year.  There's going to be a lot of talk about that--all
of which is hype, no more than a marketing attempt by the Street to get
Main Street back in the market.  You know what question to ask!  "Did
ya' mean it?"  Volume was +12% above average, for 4 straight days of
declining volume on rising prices!  That's a Bearish indicator.  "Let's
paint some lipstick on this trollop and throw her back on the street."

Actually it was a fairly quiet day on the Street.  The price change was
only 5pts, and that was about the range for the day.

The other thing you're going to hear a lot about is the Fed's interest
rate rises ending.  That's purported to be positive for the Market, but
again, there's less there than meets the eye.  One of the Fed's regional
bank presidents was speaking today and again pointed to the danger of
the Federal deficit.  Deficits at this level will eventually sink the
economy, he said.  It HAS to be paid off!

So rather than getting excited about jumping INTO the market, as the
Street seeks to persuade you, this would be a good time to "Sell into
Strength".

If you're listening to the wrong sorts of financial advisors, you'll
likely hear them refer to the "straight up" action in November as a
"flagpole", with December's flat, horizontal trading range as the
"flag".  Supposedly that formation resolves itself with another rally
equivalent to the original "flagpole".  That makes a
"target" of 1334!

I want some of what he's drinking.  It won't happen.  Even if everybody
gets the same idea, and they start buying for an easy profit, thereby
pushing the price up in a "self-fulfilling prophecy", the professional
investors are going to start peeling off before the target is reached,
selling into that strength and taking early profits.  Take a look at
2003, we had the same setup then, and while afterward prices rose some
more it was nothing like the original flagpole.  It was much slower and
ended much sooner.

Just stick with your strategy and work your tactical rules.
                                
 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 ___>     |___     __|_     ___<     __|_     __|_     01/03
 __>_     >___     __|_     ____     ___|     01/04
 __>_     >___     __|_     ___|     __>_     ___|     01/05
 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     ___>     ___|     01/06
 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     ___>     ___>     01/09

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  01/03/06 S&P:    1269
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '03-'04 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html




Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... "Dittoheads blame media for ills of America." 
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