ACUS48 KWNS 170838
SWOD48
SPC AC 170837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An initially evolving mid-level low is still forecast to emerge from
the Four Corners vicinity late this weekend, before accelerating
east of the southern Rockies and across the remainder of the
interior U.S., generally around the northern/northeastern periphery
of ridging centered over the subtropics.  As this occurs, models
indicate similar pattern developments upstream, but over the
southern mid-latitude Pacific, with another notable mid-level low
evolving to the northwest of 30N/140W early next week, before
accelerating toward the U.S. Pacific coast by the end of the period.

While there appears at least some risk for a couple of strong storms
across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into the lower central
Great Plains Sunday into Monday, the lack of a substantive return
flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is still expected to
minimize the overall convective potential.  Models indicate that
weak surface ridging may linger across the Gulf Coast vicinity
through much of the period, impeding the development of a moistening
southerly inland return flow and maintaining generally low risk for
severe thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 10/17/2024

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