ACUS02 KWNS 161646
SWODY2
SPC AC 161644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will deepen as it shifts east across the northern
Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper
ridge will envelop much of the CONUS east of the MS River as an
upper low moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface,
strong high pressure beneath the upper ridge will be centered over
the Ohio Valley. A prior cold frontal passage and
north/northeasterly low-level flow will result in Gulf moisture
remaining well offshore. A strong baroclinic zone will be oriented
from the Upper Midwest toward the southern High Plains with surface
low development expected across the Great Basin with the approach of
the upper trough. Boundary-layer moisture will remain scant, but
cooling aloft as the upper trough progresses eastward will support
enough elevated instability such that isolated thunderstorms will be
possible from the Pacific Northwest coast into the Great Basin and
central/southern Rockies vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

..Leitman.. 10/16/2024

$$

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