ACUS03 KWNS 151920
SWODY3
SPC AC 151919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on
Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the
large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves
forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the
Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of
the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near
the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level
ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast.

Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the
central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an
earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe
potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into
the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High
Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with
isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm
coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the
southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the
southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the
developing mid/upper-level cyclone.

...Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona...
Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO
River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by
Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level
cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual
moistening combined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support
some instability increase, accompanied by the potential for at least
isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night.
Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for
storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will
become sufficient to support any organized severe threat.

..Dean.. 10/15/2024

$$

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