ACUS48 KWNS 150847
SWOD48
SPC AC 150846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that a closed low will form within
an amplifying short wave trough digging southeast of the southern
Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by early Friday.  It appears
probable that this will become cut off from the westerlies, with the
center of the modestly broad circulation lingering near or southwest
of the Four Corners into early Sunday, as low-amplitude ridging
passes by to the north, near the western through central
Canadian/U.S. border area.  Sunday into Monday, models suggest that
it may come under the influence of strengthening westerly mean flow,
transitioning to an open wave and accelerating northeastward into
the central Great Plains, before continuing to migrate around the
northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over
the subtropics.

Models continue to indicate that this is unlikely to become
accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the
southern Rockies.  And low-level moisture return in the wake of
weakening cold surface ridging across the northwest Gulf Coast
region may remain modest to weak.  While modestly steep lapse rates
may contribute to isolated to widely scattered strong diurnal
thunderstorm development near surface troughing to the lee of the
Front Range, Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Friday
through Sunday, the overall severe weather potential still appears
generally low.

..Kerr.. 10/15/2024

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