ACUS03 KWNS 130640
SWODY3
SPC AC 130639

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue to
gradually amplify across the eastern U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday
night.  As a significant embedded short wave impulse digs southeast
of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, peak amplitude may be
reached near the Atlantic Seaboard around or after 12Z Wednesday.
In its wake, cool surface ridging is likely to encompass much of the
interior U.S. into northern Gulf of Mexico and southern Atlantic
Seaboard.  However, surface cyclogenesis may commence to the
immediate lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies by late
Tuesday night, as a significant mid-level trough, on the leading
edge of a somewhat more progressive regime emerging from the
mid-latitude Pacific, approaches the British Columbia/Pacific
Northwest coast.

Beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures below
-30C) shifting across the Ohio Valley during the day, and another
remnant pocket of cold air aloft across the Four Corners vicinity,
diurnal convective development might become capable of producing
occasional lightning.  Otherwise, relatively dry and/or stable
conditions appear likely to continue to prevail across much of the
U.S. through this period.

..Kerr.. 10/13/2024

$$

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